Historical Pricing of RINs Since Their Origins



Early RIN Market (2008-2010)

When RINs were first introduced following the 2005 Energy Policy Act and 2007 EISA implementation:

  • Prices were relatively low, typically under $0.10 per RIN
  • Trading was limited with minimal price volatility
  • Market infrastructure was still developing
  • D6 (conventional ethanol) RINs dominated the market

First Major Price Movements (2011-2013)

The market began experiencing its first significant price fluctuations:

  • D6 RIN prices jumped from under $0.10 to over $1.40 in 2013
  • This "RIN price spike" was triggered by concerns about hitting the "blend wall" (the practical limit of ethanol that could be blended into gasoline)
  • The EPA's proposed 2013 volume requirements created uncertainty
  • Price volatility attracted significant attention from policymakers

Market Differentiation Period (2014-2016)

Different RIN categories began showing distinct price patterns:

  • D4 (biomass-based diesel) RINs typically commanded premium prices
  • D5 (advanced biofuel) RINs traded at intermediate values
  • D6 (conventional) RINs prices moderated but remained volatile
  • Prices generally ranged from $0.30 to $1.00 depending on category

High Volatility Era (2017-2019)

This period saw extreme price swings influenced by policy uncertainty:

  • D6 RIN prices reached nearly $1.00 in late 2016/early 2017
  • Prices then collapsed to under $0.10 in 2018 due to:
  •   - Expanded small refinery exemptions
  •   - Potential RFS reform discussions
  •   - Export policy uncertainties
  • D4 RINs remained more stable but still experienced significant fluctuations

Recent Trends (2020-2025)

The market has continued to evolve with notable developments:

  • COVID-19 pandemic initially depressed RIN prices in 2020
  • Prices surged in 2021, with D6 RINs exceeding $1.80 and D4 RINs over $2.00
  • Prices moderated somewhat in 2022-2023 but remained elevated compared to historical averages
  • Increased focus on advanced biofuels has maintained premium pricing for D3/D4/D5 RINs
  • Policy developments around the "Set Rule" and electric vehicle RINs (e-RINs) have influenced market expectations

Key Price Drivers Throughout History

Several factors have consistently influenced RIN pricing:

  • EPA annual volume requirements
  • Small refinery exemption policies
  • Feedstock costs (particularly for biodiesel)
  • Petroleum fuel prices
  • Blend wall constraints
  • Policy uncertainty and court decisions
  • Seasonal demand patterns

Market Maturation

Over time, the RIN market has:

  • Developed more sophisticated trading mechanisms
  • Attracted more participants, including financial institutions
  • Established more reliable price discovery
  • Created more complex hedging strategies
  • Implemented fraud prevention measures

This historical pricing overview demonstrates how RINs have evolved from a simple compliance mechanism to a complex market with significant economic implications for the renewable fuels industry and petroleum refiners.